http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/849908_1

Probability of an Obese Person Attaining Normal Body Weight: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records Abstract

Objectives. We examined the probability of an obese person attaining normal body weight.

Methods. We drew a sample of individuals aged 20 years and older from the United Kingdom's Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2004 to 2014. We analyzed data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women. We excluded participants who received bariatric surgery. We estimated the probability of attaining normal weight or 5% reduction in body weight.

Results. During a maximum of 9 years' follow-up, 1283 men and 2245 women attained normal body weight. In simple obesity (body mass index = 30.0–34.9 kg/m²), the annual probability of attaining normal weight was 1 in 210 for men and 1 in 124 for women, increasing to 1 in 1290 for men and 1 in 677 for women with morbid obesity (body mass index = 40.0–44.9 kg/m²). The annual probability of achieving a 5% weight reduction was 1 in 8 for men and 1 in 7 for women with morbid obesity.

Conclusions. The probability of attaining normal weight or maintaining weight loss is low. Obesity treatment frameworks grounded in community-based weight management programs may be ineffective.

This is only the abstract from a larger article.

@@feedyoureye I don't like your post at all! Wait - those who received bariatric surgery were excluded. Whew! Seriously though, this goes to show we are in charge of our own destinies. If we follow our surgeon / nut plan, we have the right tools in place to be successful and much more so than we were in our previous weight loss efforts.

Exactly!

Thanks for posting this! The study certainly confirms what I knew was true for me at least - that the probability of attaining anywhere near normal body weight was just about 0 without bariatric surgery.

. . .

After reading the OP too quickly, I re-read it and realized I'd misunderstood the original post.

Those really are terrible results. Almost all morbidly obese people (with BMI of 35 or greater) remain morbidly obese.

I sure would like to see their long-term studies of people who'd had bariatric surgery!

I'm glad that you bolded the part that bariatric surgery patients were not included...I was about to be very depressed, lol.

It really goes to the point that there should be more intensive studies on how effective weight loss surgery is in achieving long term success.

I hope I live to see the day when no insurance company terms wls as "experimental" as an excuse to exclude it. And fad weight loss gimmicks go under tighter scrutiny, because in reality they are profiting mightily from selling worthless miracles to desperate people. It's a shame.

Edited September 18, 201510 yr by The Post Op

That definitely reaffirms my decision to have WLS! As if I needed any more affirmation at this point.

Note also that the maximum follow-up was 9 years. Chances are things go awry for traditional interventions much sooner than that, and I've read studies that say 90% of people put every pound back on within 3 years. These are grim statistics, and I would hope it would only cause more insurance to cover bariatric surgery, and above all, I hope that in time the "eat less and lose more" rhetoric becomes as backwards as racism and gender discrimination.

Did you notice it was "normal" or 5% reduction? i started at 308, BMI of 52 and so losing 5% was only 15#. In the past I could lose 30-40 regularly and then regain 50-70.

I guess that illustrates the point that maintaining even "small" losses is very difficult without WLS

I find it is difficult to keep weight off with WLS as well, probably for the same reasons it was difficult before surgery, however there is still a much better chance to keep some weight off with surgery, which puts us ahead. At nearly 5 years, I have gained about 25% of my lost weight back (it took me 3 years to get to goal). Having a really hard time getting it to budge... eat between 700-1400 cals a day WHEN I LOG. I still exercise 4-5 days a week. This is still a big success for me, compared to my many efforts in the past. At this point, even with all that, I have still lost more weight than my Dr. originally thought I would.

Thank you for providing the article.

Just one more thing to use if you feel the need to respond to the "Why don't you just do it yourself/You are taking the easy way out." debate.

I find it is difficult to keep weight off with WLS as well, probably for the same reasons it was difficult before surgery, however there is still a much better chance to keep some weight off with surgery, which puts us ahead. At nearly 5 years, I have gained about 25% of my lost weight back (it took me 3 years to get to goal). Having a really hard time getting it to budge... eat between 700-1400 cals a day WHEN I LOG. I still exercise 4-5 days a week. This is still a big success for me, compared to my many efforts in the past. At this point, even with all that, I have still lost more weight than my Dr. originally thought I would.

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Hi Feedyoureye, can I ask what your stats are? And if you don't mind, you're age? Just curious. I love how involved you are on the sight after five years and still doing so well. Sometimes when the newness wears off so does the enthusiasm. I'm 53 and I just never want to go back to where I was. I'm pretty sure I won't but this just reaffirms this is a lifetime journey

Great post! Definitely holds true for me!

I've heard 95% of people regain all which they've lost. ????????????