http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/849908_1

Probability of an Obese Person Attaining Normal Body Weight: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records Abstract

Objectives. We examined the probability of an obese person attaining normal body weight.

Methods. We drew a sample of individuals aged 20 years and older from the United Kingdom's Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2004 to 2014. We analyzed data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women. We excluded participants who received bariatric surgery. We estimated the probability of attaining normal weight or 5% reduction in body weight.

Results. During a maximum of 9 years' follow-up, 1283 men and 2245 women attained normal body weight. In simple obesity (body mass index = 30.0–34.9 kg/m²), the annual probability of attaining normal weight was 1 in 210 for men and 1 in 124 for women, increasing to 1 in 1290 for men and 1 in 677 for women with morbid obesity (body mass index = 40.0–44.9 kg/m²). The annual probability of achieving a 5% weight reduction was 1 in 8 for men and 1 in 7 for women with morbid obesity.

Conclusions. The probability of attaining normal weight or maintaining weight loss is low. Obesity treatment frameworks grounded in community-based weight management programs may be ineffective.

This is only the abstract from a larger article.

Great post! Definitely holds true for me!

I've heard 95% of people regain all which they've lost.

And according to this study, only 2% of those who are obese ever achieve normal weight without bariatric surgery.

We are so smart!

I find it is difficult to keep weight off with WLS as well, probably for the same reasons it was difficult before surgery, however there is still a much better chance to keep some weight off with surgery, which puts us ahead. At nearly 5 years, I have gained about 25% of my lost weight back (it took me 3 years to get to goal). Having a really hard time getting it to budge... eat between 700-1400 cals a day WHEN I LOG. I still exercise 4-5 days a week. This is still a big success for me, compared to my many efforts in the past. At this point, even with all that, I have still lost more weight than my Dr. originally thought I would.

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Hi Feedyoureye, can I ask what your stats are? And if you don't mind, you're age? Just curious. I love how involved you are on the sight after five years and still doing so well. Sometimes when the newness wears off so does the enthusiasm. I'm 53 and I just never want to go back to where I was. I'm pretty sure I won't but this just reaffirms this is a lifetime journey

SW 260

lowest weight after surgery, 170 (took me 3 years to get there)

stated goal 170-173

bad year where my mom died, my little dog died and developed bone spurs in my right knee....

current weight 195

still working on it... would love to get the weight down a bit again...

I am a vegetarian, I am currently 62 years old, 5'9", large boned.

I take a bellydance class twice a week, walk twice a week, and kayak or hike or something once a week.

I do not do very low carbs, never did.... I do take my Vitamins, don't always drink enough Water but keep trying to,

when I use fit bit and myfitnesspal I am more successfull than if I do not. I do a partial fast twice a week (the 5:2)

I still want to answer the call to adventure and I'm going to try and get my motorcycle license next week.

You can never fully forget that you need to keep on track. Its boring, disappointing and unpredictable.... I fall off the wagon weeks at a time, but I really try not to forget... and get back on track. I don't want to make change that I can't keep doing... that leads to yoyo. so, no fad diets. No cutting out things I like completely. I try to eat more veggies all the time, find things I really like that make me feel good and are really healthy choices. I try and drown out the crap eating with lots of good eating. This forum is my society. When I leave it, I start to forget where I am.

@@feedyoureye - I think I will be coming here forever - it will keep me "on track"

thanks for sharing this info~