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Percent of Weight Loss Predicted



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Can anyone comment on whether the percentage of excess weight expected to be lost with gastric sleeve is actually post-surgery vs all the pre-surgery weight loss from expected on your own weight loss and the pre-op diet?

I'm expecting the ~60% excess weight loss predicted to be additional Post-surgery weight loss on top of what I've lost so far since gastric sleeve reports as a surgical intervention. The "60% excess weight loss" shouldn't count what I've lost on my own with a restrictive diet and exercise?

If not, having the surgery to lose just 50# or less seems maybe not a great choice? Thoughts?

Or, can anyone share their own stats showing the 60% average loss counting only post-surgical weight loss?

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My program calculates percentage of weight loss from the weight recorded on my first visit with the program.

Personally, I calculate and list on here my weight as recorded at a doctor visit when I started a new diabetes medication and started serious weight-loss efforts on my own several months before joining the surgery preparation program.

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37 minutes ago, Maisey said:

My program calculates percentage of weight loss from the weight recorded on my first visit with the program.

Personally, I calculate and list on here my weight as recorded at a doctor visit when I started a new diabetes medication and started serious weight-loss efforts on my own several months before joining the surgery preparation program.

Thanks for the info. Would you mind sharing how much of your total weight lost has been post-surgery?

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I was wrong above...I think the correct terminology is % of excess weight. Perhaps someone can chime in on that?

I've lost 100% of my excess weight. I was 374 HW, 343 Start of Program, 325 SW, 168 CW. RNY on 12/14/2020. Once I hit 174 in was in normal BMI. However, my program does not specify goal weights.

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6 minutes ago, Maisey said:

I was wrong above...I think the correct terminology is % of excess weight. Perhaps someone can chime in on that?

I've lost 100% of my excess weight. I was 374 HW, 343 Start of Program, 325 SW, 168 CW. RNY on 12/14/2020. Once I hit 174 in was in normal BMI. However, my program does not specify goal weights.

325 is your weight on the day of surgery?

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yes

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1 hour ago, LadyH said:

Can anyone comment on whether the percentage of excess weight expected to be lost with gastric sleeve is actually post-surgery vs all the pre-surgery weight loss from expected on your own weight loss and the pre-op diet?

I'm expecting the ~60% excess weight loss predicted to be additional Post-surgery weight loss on top of what I've lost so far since gastric sleeve reports as a surgical intervention. The "60% excess weight loss" shouldn't count what I've lost on my own with a restrictive diet and exercise?

If not, having the surgery to lose just 50# or less seems maybe not a great choice? Thoughts?

Or, can anyone share their own stats showing the 60% average loss counting only post-surgical weight loss?

My program doesn't set targets like that, especially because BMI isn't really a good measure on an individual level. They worked with me to set a target goal, then told me goals can and do move. So here are a bunch of numbers for you:

Heavy weight 396 (probably heavier but I stopped weighing myself)

Program start weight 375

liquid diet start weight 366

Surgery weight 357

Current weight 293 (eleven weeks post-op)

Goal weight (for now) 240

"Normal" BMI weight: 184 (but I will never get there because I have more lean body mass than that)

So technically my "excess weight" calculated by BMI would be 182 lbs. By that standard, since surgery (not the pre-op diet), I have lost 35% of my "excess weight". If we use the unattainable "normal BMI" number, I am 40 pounds from 60% "excess weight" lost.

My PCP chose to use my lean body mass plus 15 percent (which is an ambitious, flat-stomach-and-maybe-some-abs target for a man), which would be 240. By that standard, since surgery, I have lost 55% of my "excess weight" in eleven weeks. If we use the actually-attainable goal weight set by my PCP, I am 6.2 pounds from 60% excess weight lost.

But when we had our consultation last week, my PCP said he just wants me below 40 BMI (which I am) and ideally below 35 BMI (which would be 35 pounds more to lose).

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I weighed 238 on my surgery date and I needed to get down to 132 for a normal BMI. So I had 106 pounds of excess weight. I lost all of that, plus 11 more pounds after surgery.

Before the pre-op liquid diet I weighed 250, so that's what listed as my starting weight. But just counting from after surgery, I lost 117 pounds, which was all my excess weight and then some.

The statistics are based on averages and you can do better or worse than average based on many different factors. Some of those factors you can control (motivation, compliance, exercise, etc.) and some you can't (age, gender, medical conditions, etc.)

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it doesn't really matter because that 60% of excess weight is just an average. As with any average, there are going to be people who fall on either side of that. People who really stick to their programs tend to do a lot better than that - and then, of course, there are people who aren't as committed and either don't lose much or gain their weight back.

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Me and my doc count from the start of my 2 wk pre-op liquid diet.

I was 235 two wks before surgery.

Am 3+ years out today and weighed 117.5 this morning.

At 5’2”, normal BMI for me would be ~135bs.

So math says I am at 118% excess weight lost as of today.

But as @catwoman7 indicated above, probably best to disregard the oft-stated 60% excess weight loss prediction. Its just an average and real life individual results vary GREATLY.

Good Luck! ❤️

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4 hours ago, ms.sss said:

Me and my doc count from the start of my 2 wk pre-op liquid diet.

I was 235 two wks before surgery.

Am 3+ years out today and weighed 117.5 this morning.

At 5’2”, normal BMI for me would be ~135bs.

So math says I am at 118% excess weight lost as of today.

But as @catwoman7 indicated above, probably best to disregard the oft-stated 60% excess weight loss prediction. Its just an average and real life individual results vary GREATLY.

Good Luck! ❤️

Way to go!

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The stats tend to say the average weight loss after about 5 years is about 65% of the weight you have to lose to put yourself in the healthy BMI range. Some lose more. Some lose less. Some keep it off. Some don’t & happily settle at a higher weight. This can be from choice, genetics, lifestyle, complacency, health, etc. For example it’s not uncommon for people to experience a 10-20lb bounce back regain around year 3.

I think some surgeons give the average expected weight loss to keep expectations realistic. Mine didn’t but he asked me what weight I’d like to reach. I said 60kg because that was the lowest weight I’d reached the many, many times I’d lost weight in the past & it gave me a bmi of about 23. He said it was a realistic goal. I exceeded it (135% of the weight I had to lose). My lowest weight was 48.2. For about 14 months I’ve been about 49kg but I waver between 48.5 & 49.5. But I’m close to that 3yr mark & you never know what the future will bring so I try to be realistic about that.

The average is probably a good goal but no one says you can’t exceed it & set new goals if you want & if you can can without undue restrictions & limitations on your life.

Even though we’re guilty of regularly checking that scale & we know all our stats, ultimately, it’s not about the number on that scale. It’s about you being happy & healthy & enjoying your life.

Edited by Arabesque

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On 12/1/2021 at 11:34 AM, LadyH said:

Can anyone comment on whether the percentage of excess weight expected to be lost with gastric sleeve is actually post-surgery vs all the pre-surgery weight loss from expected on your own weight loss and the pre-op diet?

I'm expecting the ~60% excess weight loss predicted to be additional Post-surgery weight loss on top of what I've lost so far since gastric sleeve reports as a surgical intervention. The "60% excess weight loss" shouldn't count what I've lost on my own with a restrictive diet and exercise?

If not, having the surgery to lose just 50# or less seems maybe not a great choice? Thoughts?

Or, can anyone share their own stats showing the 60% average loss counting only post-surgical weight loss?

This may be an unpopular opinion, and I may be biased because I am 5 days post-op, but I wouldn't get this surgery to lose 50 lbs. This is my opinion I know everyone is different and has their own health considerations, but I am just wondering why I went through this horrible traumatic event to lose a smaller amount of weight (60 lbs or so). I paid out of pocket and should have spent that money on a trainer and food program. Idk. Take this with a grain of salt as I have said I'm fresh out of surgery.

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6 minutes ago, TheRealPennyD said:

This may be an unpopular opinion, and I may be biased because I am 5 days post-op, but I wouldn't get this surgery to lose 50 lbs. This is my opinion I know everyone is different and has their own health considerations, but I am just wondering why I went through this horrible traumatic event to lose a smaller amount of weight (60 lbs or so). I paid out of pocket and should have spent that money on a trainer and food program. Idk. Take this with a grain of salt as I have said I'm fresh out of surgery.

I get that. I have been trying to decide about this for 2 years. I agree with you, but then I look at my age and increasing health issues, and how much harder it is to lose weight on my own each year that passes. And that's why I am (hoping) to pull the trigger on Dec, 15. But after seeing all the meds and nutrition/supplements problems/issues, and that just the Calcium is going to cost $40/month, etc,etc., etc., I think I must be an idiot. BUT, I also need to get two other abdominal repair/procedures done AT THE SAME TIME which was another factor in thinking I should get this done since I'd have all the risks of those 2 procedures, anyway. I hope you recover quickly and it works out so much better for you (and me!) than you think. Let's keep in touch!

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4 hours ago, TheRealPennyD said:

This may be an unpopular opinion, and I may be biased because I am 5 days post-op, but I wouldn't get this surgery to lose 50 lbs. This is my opinion I know everyone is different and has their own health considerations, but I am just wondering why I went through this horrible traumatic event to lose a smaller amount of weight (60 lbs or so). I paid out of pocket and should have spent that money on a trainer and food program. Idk. Take this with a grain of salt as I have said I'm fresh out of surgery.

Had you never tried diet and exercise previously? If not, you're right, it might have been premature to leap right to surgery. But most of us who have had WLS have tried for years to permanently lose weight via all kinds of eating plans and all kinds of exercise plans. And many of us HAVE lost hundreds of pounds over the years (or decades), only to gain them back, plus extra. You know the quote about the definition of insanity? There comes a point where you know in your bones that "one more diet" or "one more workout plan" is not going end any differently. If you really believe you can lose the weight on your own, then it might be too soon for surgery. Most of us were long past that point by the time we had our procedures.

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