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21 hours ago, Elidh said:

Hi Jessica, Here’s a link to a bariatric surgery outcomes predictor that many professionals use:

https://michiganbsc.org/DecisionTools/

Boy I hope this calculator is wrong! I'm just 3 mos out and down 50 lbs. According to this calculator, I can only expect to lose another 16 lbs?!!!!

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23 hours ago, Elidh said:

Hi Jessica, Here’s a link to a bariatric surgery outcomes predictor that many professionals use:

https://michiganbsc.org/DecisionTools/

Yeah, I don't think so lol I am 3 1/2 months post op and have lost 65 pounds. This says the absolute most I'm going to lose (up through year 3) is another 50 pounds??? Nope. Maybe that's the average, but that's definitely not going to be me. I need to lose another 123 pounds to hit my goal, and I actually would like to get even lower than that. So this might be nice, and maybe fairly accurate, but I don't intend it to be accurate for me.

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A couple of additional thoughts on this thread:

First, as many have pointed out, averages are just that, averages. Some people will lose more and some less than those numbers. Whether of not you are on the lower side or the higher side depends a lot on you. Work your plan and you too can blow that "average" out of the Water.

Second:, avoid the temptation to select your target weight from the BMI "ideal weight" range. Some people don't realize this, but on average, 25% of your excess weight is not fat. As you might expect, it's made up of the additional muscle mass needed to carry the extra weight (much of which you'll lose), but it's also extra blood volume, bone mass, organ weight, excess skin, etc. Some of those things will continue to cause you to be "overweight" in terms of BMI, but in actuality, you might be in a very health place in terms of lean to fat mass. Get it checked if in doubt.

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Posted (edited)

As usual, some people who hit the average swear by it, those that don't ridicule it. I hope EVERYONE draws the appropriate message. If it's not clear, statistics are crap.

Here is the truth: A certain percentage (50-60%) hit average loss which is also 70-80% of goal. If you hit that and are happy, more power to you. [ETA: When I started, at my weight, I would have killed to hit average. I would have been fine.]

If you're not happy with that, the averages need not have power over you.

I lost goal and past goal, through little fault of my own, other than binge running. Anyone, through ridiculous acts or normal behavior can beat the averages. Statistics are lies. HUGE lies.

I could post my statistics. Yeah, I have them. But I know they are mine, only mine. And may make a lot of people feel like crap: For 2 reasons: 1) I weighed more that most people here, so my monthly losses seem crazy, not so much for me as others (starting higher and lower) beat me. 2nd, I shot past goal because I was running 90+ miles a week. I couldn't eat enough to stop losing weight. What good does it do anyone here to know? None.

Do you. No one here lives you. You may lose little or a lot, I think it's a crap shoot.

Just don't compare, that is a losing game.

Good luck,

Tek

Edited by The Greater Fool
damn grammar

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Posted (edited)

5 hours ago, SleeveDiva2022 said:

Yeah, I don't think so lol I am 3 1/2 months post op and have lost 65 pounds. This says the absolute most I'm going to lose (up through year 3) is another 50 pounds??? Nope. Maybe that's the average, but that's definitely not going to be me. I need to lose another 123 pounds to hit my goal, and I actually would like to get even lower than that. So this might be nice, and maybe fairly accurate, but I don't intend it to be accurate for me.

That statistic, besides being an average, reflects bounce back weight gain which is pretty common, general diet complacency where after a couple of years we let things slide a bit, adjustments to the way you eat to better complement your lifestyle, general health, changes to medication, etc. It’s not the highest amount of weight you may lose but where you MAY end up at the three years point. It’s the same stat that says the a average weight loss at three years for sleeve is about 65% of the weight you have to lose.

The most I lost was 43.8kgs (141%) . Then I settled at around 42kg (135%). Now at three years it’s 40 (129% - damn HRT & I had to up my Protein intake.) Yes, my gain is minimal & I lost a lot more then the stats suggested but others do experience less loss & greater gains.

Treat averages (stats) & BMIs for that matter as a guide only not a hard & fast rule. They just give you a bit of an idea of what might happen.

Edited by Arabesque

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4 hours ago, Arabesque said:

That statistic, besides being an average, reflects bounce back weight gain which is pretty common, general diet complacency where after a couple of years we let things slide a bit, adjustments to the way you eat to better complement your lifestyle, general health, changes to medication, etc. It’s not the highest amount of weight you may lose but where you MAY end up at the three years point. It’s the same stat that says the a average weight loss at three years for sleeve is about 65% of the weight you have to lose.

The most I lost was 43.8kgs (141%) . Then I settled at around 42kg (135%). Now at three years it’s 40 (129% - damn HRT & I had to up my Protein intake.) Yes, my gain is minimal & I lost a lot more then the stats suggested but others do experience less loss & greater gains.

Treat averages (stats) & BMIs for that matter as a guide only not a hard & fast rule. They just give you a bit of an idea of what might happen.

So were you 5 ft 2 in and started off at around 200 pounds? Then you lost a final total of 88 pounds and are now sitting at roughly 112 pounds (when your goal weight was 132)??? That's actually amazing weight loss!!! For me, my ideal weight is between 145-155. I'm honestly not getting anywhere near that, and I'm ok with it. My goal is 200 pounds, but secretly I actually want to get to 185 if possible. My surgeon went over the stats and averages and explained that the sleeve usually produces less weight loss that the bypass, but I wasn't willing to do the bypass because I have pills I HAVE to take and I knew that wasn't allowed with the bypass.

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I was 335 in March. In anticipation of surgery I lost 55#, so at surgery (the day before yesterday) I was 280. My goal is 200 (okay, my secret goal is 190). What does the rate of loss look like? That is, do you lose steadily, or more quickly at first and then more slowly? How long should it take to lose the next 80#? My hope is to lose 50 in six months and the rest in the following six months. Is that realistic? As for exercise, I walk my dog about 1+ mile/day but hope to pick that up as I lose weight.

To your questions: Generally, you do lose weight quicker in the beginning and it tapers off. If you stay on program, losing 50 lbs in the first 6 months is absolutely realistic.

Note: It's common to have stalls but if you stay on program, it is temporary. Do anything you can not to stress about it or have too high expectations, otherwise you'll up your cortisol levels which increases cravings and hinders weightloss.

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Tomo,

Thanks. I agree about not having high expectations. Now if I can only keep them low 😉

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Tomo,

Thanks. I agree about not having high expectations. Now if I can only keep them low 😉

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The one clear consensus is that "your mileage may vary." -- Best bet is to hang in there and not obsess about where you'll end up.

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Really interesting thread. The calculator is way out for me (thankfully!) but again most interesting to see it and play around with it.

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First, congratulations on your tremendous success. Second, I looked at the calculator briefly, but in truth, I believe my Dr's predictions of what is possible. The key question is how long it will take to hit my target weight, and rather than making myself crazy I'm setting a goal of 1 year and a fall back of 2.

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Well, I'm sorta happy so far. Weight loss has slowed to a crawl; but I was tired of dieting, too. Physically, it's hard to eat too much. I generally don't get hungry, so I'm happy. I still lose, but so slowly. It's all such a personal thing! I know all I have to do is cut back a little more and I would lose more quickly. i guess if I started gaining, I would jump back on the strict bandwagon..

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